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RIP Bitcoin

Posted By: Randy GageDecember 12, 2022

Dearly beloved…

We are gathered here today to mourn the passing of our cherished friend, Bitcoin.  A friend who came to this world full of promise and hope, seeking to protect us from inflation, fraud, and worthless printing press money.

Alas, Bitcoin is dead.

Bitcoin came into our world as a precocious but brilliant child, brightened our lives for a moment, and tragically left us too soon.  Now it’s time to put a wreath on the coffin and move on with our lives.

Not because cryptocurrency wasn’t a brilliant idea.  It was and still is… 

Not because cryptocurrency couldn’t have succeeded. It should have... 

No, it’s time to move on because crypto will miss its Overton window – its moment of opportunity when it could have broken through the forces of inertia, navigated through the hellscape of government regulation, and overcome sabotage from the legacy money system – to become the worldwide electronic cash that Satoshi Nakamoto envisioned – and we all desperately hoped it could become.

Now that we have the breathless clickbait lede out of the way, allow me to get serious and explain my hypothesis...  

I don’t believe Bitcoin is actually dead, but I believe it and other cryptocurrencies are facing a fate far worse than death: irrelevance.  Before sharing my reasoning for making this (what many will label as insane) prognostication – please note these three disclaimers:

  • I am NOT an investment advisor, securities broker, or financial planner. I was expelled from high school and hold no college degrees.

On the other hand, I have earned more money in my life than 99 percent of the people on this planet.  Everything I share is my self-taught, real-world experience on the principles of prosperity and how you apply them in your day-to-day life.  As part of that work, I sometimes evaluate things like cryptocurrencies, NFTs, and the blockchain, in terms of how they operate from a prosperity standpoint.  This essay is presented under that premise, and that premise only.

  • I have never been an anti-crypto evangelist.

Before you write off everything I say, you should know that I wasn’t one of the cynics who dismissed cryptocurrencies as an impossible to achieve pipe dream, or an unscrupulous sketchy scam. Quite the opposite.  I’ve been touting and investing in crypto since my Risky Is the New Safe book in 2012.

  • In the sake of full transparency, you should also know that on November 19, 2022, I sold all remaining cryptocurrencies in my portfolio.

At that time, I was no longer confident cryptocurrencies would be viable in the foreseeable future and for the sake of transparency, announced that and promised to create a longer post explaining the rationale behind my decision.  This is that post.

So why have I jettisoned all my crypto investments? 

(Yes, if you’re wondering, this applies to all cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, which I consider to be the gold standard of cryptos.)

You should know, my reasoning is not the conventional anti-crypto arguments: Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies haven’t achieved status as a hedge against inflation, aren’t being used as actual currencies, not become a true store of value, etc.  Even though those potential benefits haven’t transpired yet, they didn’t factor in my decision-making process.  You should never judge a new development by how janky, inconvenient, or bulky it is in version one.  Remember that lovely Motorola DynaTac 8000X mobile phone that Gordon Gekko carried around in Wall Street?  Compare that brick (which cost $3,995) to the elegant supercomputer you’re probably reading this post on right now.  Compare that authentic calling from inside a garbage can sound of the early Skype calls to the brilliantly functional Zoom rooms you host today.  With developing technologies, you have to project out how they will work at scale when the bugs are ironed out. Like most early crypto investors, I was willing to bet that those issues could be overcome.

Let’s go back to Satoshi’s actual vision for Bitcoin:

  • A pure peer-to-peer version of electronic cash that would allow payments to be sent without involving a financial institution, reducing the risk for fraud.
  • The ability to conduct decentralized transactions without government spying, taxation, and seizures.
  • A system for non-reversable electronic transactions that doesn’t rely on trust.

But is that really how most people view and interact with Bitcoin?  Obviously not, or we would never have gotten all these other pseudo cryptocurrencies, pump & dump schemes, and bored apes.  If we were actually developing Bitcoin as envisioned, Dogecoin, Three Arrows Capital, Alameda, FTX, and Sam Bankman-Fried would have never existed.  (Okay SBF would have existed, but you would have never heard of him.)

We got seduced by the dark side of the Force…

Cryptocurrencies have reproduced like rabbits, offering dozens of coins and tokens claiming to be currencies.  Exactly zero of them have become accepted currencies.  Real people are not using them to buy real things.  (Note: Horny Crypto Bro drunks paying 100k with Bitcoin for bottle service at Club E11EVEN in Miami does not meet this criterion.)  For all practical purposes, we’ve just opened a new marketplace bazaar for gambling and trading.  But instead of offering Persian rugs, these markets buy, sell, and trade digital currencies.  If you don’t like the bazaar analogy, think of the current crypto space as a currency-only version of the stock market, or even Las Vegas casinos.

Theres lots of speculation going on, fortunes are being made, and fortunes are being lost.  But no one is actually using cryptocurrencies as, you know, cryptocurrencies.  Furthermore, most bazaars, stock markets, and casinos have some degree of oversight, regulation, and a way to adjudicate disputes.  The crypto space has none of that. 

If your concept of crypto is like the above, seeing it not as a cryptocurrency but an instrument you can be a ninja day trader with, riding the cycles, looking for new levels to buy low, sell high – stop reading here.  You’ve found your adrenaline rush and far be it from me to tell you how to have fun. Mazel tov, plunge your lungs out.

 The two principal reasons I’ve bailed on crypto are because I believe:

  • The crypto infrastructure and eco-system are irredeemably corrupt.
  • We won’t reach the Overton window of acceptance for cryptocurrencies because of the buzzkill of widespread fraud, losses, and negative publicity.

The last few months are exposing how systemically corrupted the entire crypto support structure really is.  There are security holes in the system that you could sail an aircraft carrier through.  Cryptos have eliminated the conventional financial institutions that Satoshi spoke about, but for the most part they’ve been replaced with options that are far worse: exchanges, farming, and storage operations.  (This is akin to firing Bill Cosby as your babysitter but replacing him with Jeffrey Dahmer.)

Many of these operations are run by well-meaning but incompetent people, and others are controlled by outright criminals.  The amount of fraud taking place is astounding.  Yes, you can keep your crypto in cold storage, and hopefully you do.  But even if blockchains were 100 percent secure (which they’re not), in order for cryptocurrency to be viable on a mass market scale, you need a safe marketplace.  This means platforms where it can be bought, traded, sold, and accrue interest.  For now, that means these sketchy operations.

And right now, those entities represent a cesspool of bad actors and fraud, devoid of any regulation, and without any effective means to redress wrongdoing.  The recent developments taking place at Three Arrows Capital, Alameda, FTX, Voyager, Celsius, BlockFi, and Gemini have demonstrated undeniably that crypto trading is still in the wild, wild, west stage of development.  (Before the days even of town marshals.) In reality, even exchanges thought to be reputable by the smartest names in the space have wretched cybersecurity and no credible oversight.  They’re often funded with worthless shit coins based on fantasy blockchains, have dangerous levels of illiquidity, are frequently insolvent, and use client’s assets to borrow against or even outright steal them.  Of the ones left standing, the largest, most credible one is Binance, a decentralized company with no actual headquarters.  All cryptocurrencies are still embryonic enough to be vulnerable to pump and dump price manipulation from insider whales or even sketchy social media influencers.  Ex: FEG, Dogecoin, Luna and literally hundreds of others.

Of course, you can still transfer crypto direct to someone in a one-on-one exchange. This works for bartering between evangelical Bitcoin maximalists, but it’s not enough traction to create credible mass adoption.  Every time you see someone breathlessly tweeting their excitement for discovering a dog groomer who accepts Bitcoin, it shows how insignificant the adoption rate really is.

Even the legitimate cryptos like Bitcoin or ETH have to navigate through the existing network of sleaze, grift, and criminality.  It’s like owning a Lamborghini, but the only route from home to work and back every day is through a crime-ridden neighborhood controlled by narco-traffickers.  At some point, you ditch the Lambo and buy a Toyota.   Toss in the blatantly corrupt MLM crypto scams like OneCoin, OmegaPro, Xifra/Decentra, and Evorich – and you have millions more gullible people victimized.

This entire ecosystem is fraudulent AF and I believe it is likely to collapse at any moment, in a domino progression of bankruptcies, hacks, and criminality.

But this isn’t the biggest challenge.  It’s timing…

To understand this issue, we must begin with the question of why is it better to be a pirate than join the Navy?  In the case of new breakthrough developments in technology, the Navy represents the existing incumbents in the space.  They’re very rich, very powerful, and will do anything and everything they can to kill off any innovation that can threaten their monopolistic marketplaces.  The dream of every start up is to begin as the swashbuckling pirate, defeat the imperial power, and then become the new Navy.  In business school they call this disruption.

To create a successful disruption in a space, it comes down to two factors:

  • Achieving broad spread adoption by the masses.
  • Getting to that adoption before the government and establishment incumbents can kill you.

You have to start under the radar and capitalize on the laziness, inertia, and cockiness of the incumbents.  The way Uber did this to the taxi industry, Airbnb did to hotels, and Amazon did to bookstores (and now essentially retailers).  I would argue that there is no disruption challenge more David vs Goliath than the one cryptocurrency is attempting now.  The crypto “industry” is attempting an end run around the entire worldwide financial system.  And because that financial system controls virtually all governments, crypto has to take on those governments as well.

This takes us back to the Overton window…

When Travis and his band of pirates started Uber, they were virtually illegal in every market they launched.  But they moved fast building their customer base, hooking them on the drug of a car service that was monumentally better than the shady taxi monopolies. Municipalities such as San Francisco would then send in inspectors, impound cars, and even arrest drivers.  Uber would respond by sending alerts to all their delighted customers beseeching them to contact their mayor and city council demanding that Uber be left alone.  They had enough critical mass of evangelical thrilled customers to overpower the Navy.  Now in many places, Uber is the Navy, taxies are an afterthought, and disruption is complete. It was a similar scenario with Airbnb.  Most localities tried to regulate them as hotels requiring licensing, inspection, and other government protection or shakedowns, depending on your perspective.  The Rebel Alliance of zealous, enchanted customers fought hard to get the company legitimatized.

This is exactly the game plan that needs to happen for crypto to make the jump from pirate to Navy.  Until recently, the crypto community was working quietly behind the scenes, trying to work with lawmakers to enact a minimal amount of legislation to prevent wholesale fraud, but not enough to be so onerous to negate the benefits of being outside the traditional finance system.

But Sam Bankman-Fried and pirates like him got too greedy, too fast... 

(Editor note: Bankman-Fried was arrested just before this post went live.)  Now the entire crypto eco-system is in meltdown mode, creating two problems. The first is that millions of people have been scammed and more are becoming victimized daily, causing the shellshocked masses to flee the space.  Wavering trust turned to skepticism, and now that skepticism has transformed into cynicism.  We’re not quite at the cynical bottom yet, but I believe we will be soon. Very soon. The investors left are walking on eggshells, waiting for the next rug-pull, bankruptcy, fake ICO, pump and dump, or MLM crypto.  Most people with a room temperature IQ or higher are coming to the conclusion the crypto ecosystem is a dumpster fire of exploding supernova proportions.

The reason that timing and public perception are so important here is because all forms of money, physical or digital, are simply memes (mind viruses). 

We like to believe that we are protected with safeguards in place to protect our financial system.  But the whole banking and finance system is simply performance art of kabuki theater based upon herd thinking trust.  (Can we stop all the bullshit and just admit that no one is a bigger Ponzi scheme than supposedly democratic governments?) We all mutually agree on the concept of currencies because it’s a lot more convenient than trading oranges for massages, fish for computer repair, or radishes for the new Beyonce album. But there is no intrinsic value in any currency, whether it’s doubloons, wampum, US dollar, or crypto.

Currencies hold their value only when there is broad-based public acceptance – a shared hypnosis that all willingly agree to. 

The bolivar from Venezuela was perceived as valuable until it wasn’t.  Everyone in that country knows the government will devalue it day after day, so no one believes in it as a viable currency any longer.  This process has been happening for all currencies since the very first one. Most fiat currencies have no competition which provides forced acceptance.  The new cryptocurrencies don’t enjoy this monopoly, so they have a much higher bar to reach mass adoption.  And what has happened in the space until now hasn’t helped the situation…

The Mt. Gox hack in 2014 stole seven percent of all outstanding Bitcoin at the time.  The UST/Luna debacle evaporated about $40 billion more. Toss in another $40 billion gone with FTX and Alameda, $18 billion from the Three Arrows Capital meltdown, $5 billion Genesis bankruptcy, four and a half billion each from the Celcius and BlockFi blowups, $3 billion plus from Voyager, and the Ronin, Wormhole, Nomad, Beanstalk and Wintermute hacks come in at over a billion dollars more.  Think of all these (and plenty more) in terms of crypto’s total market cap. Has there ever been a theft or similar fiat currency fraud that has consequences even remotely as severe?

I’m positing that we missed the timing window on crypto because the meltdowns are becoming too public and too frequent before the masses got hooked on the future ultimate benefits that could be realized.

The second problem is that this crypto ecosystem meltdown has provided the legacy banking system with the perfect opportunity to swoop in and use the most powerful weapon in their arsenal to destroy it: their puppet politicians and governments. Not to mention, cryptocurrencies threaten a lot more entrenched entities than the banking system and governments. It’s a direct competitor to precious metals, crowdfunding, wire transfers, and all the payment apps.  This means crypto is going to have to face the Navy, Air Force, Army, Space Force and Marines.  (And as Balaji Srinivasan points out, the blockchains that drive crypto could be viewed as competition against the cloud, search engines, operating systems, or even social media.  So then crypto wouldn’t just be fighting the Navy, Air Force, Army, Space Force and Marines, but also Emperor Palpatine and the Galactic Republic.)

There’s been much made about the large political donations made by FTX and its executives. This is pretty much the standard game plan of every pirate that wants to become the Navy. They give money to any politician in any party who could help them kill off any upstart that threatens their honey pot.  Where crypto went off the track here is the political bribes were paid, but FTX and some of these other Ponzi schemes collapsed before they had time to build a moat around the company with regulatory protection against the next round of pirates coming up through the ranks. Cryptocurrencies needed to achieve a large degree of mass adoption before politicians could figure out how they could co-opt it. Here in the U.S., Senator Elizabeth Warren’s office released a statement saying, “As Senator Warren has already said publicly, she’s working on crypto legislation and believes that financial regulators, including the SEC, have broad existing authority to crack down on crypto fraud and illegal money laundering.”  On November 6, the EU announced that crypto transactions of more than 1k euros will be “under surveillance.”  This is why we can’t have nice things. Do I really need to tell you where this goes next???

“How do we know that these crypto transactions aren’t being used for child pornography, sex trafficking, and drug dealer money laundering?  Why do you need privacy if you have nothing to hide?  Isn’t this just a scheme for the rich to avoid taxes?

And all the other usual tropes the government uses when they want to spy on you and reach into your bank account.

Crypto is an entirely different dynamic than taxis, hotels, and bookstores.  Taxis, hotels, and bookstores don’t create money to replace governments fiat currencies.  Cryptos do.  What the Bitcoin maximalists view as progress (pandering words from a few central bankers, governments developing crypto regulations, El Salvador accepting BTC as official currency, etc.) are actually the opposite of what needed to take place for Bitcoin to become viable.

Cryptos seeking validation from governments is like a bunch of mice working together to build their own cat.

The only reason governments show any pretense of supporting or accepting cryptocurrencies is so they can manipulate, control, and tax them.  Or learn enough about how they work so they can create their own versions to usurp them.  If we ever are able to reach a state where a cryptocurrency gains worldwide acceptance, I believe it will be outside the reach of government, independent of all fiat currencies. In 2018 I predicted that if one cryptocurrency emerged to become THE global accepted currency, it would need to be a rogue currency – outside the constraints of any government.  Nothing since then has changed my view, in fact, it has only gotten stronger.

If governments have any participation in a cryptocurrency, they will eventually resort to manipulation, devaluation, monitoring your purchases, taxing your transactions, and seizing your assets.  That’s just what governments do. Governments can never create prosperity.  At best they can facilitate it.  Usually, they destroy it.

And that, boys and girls and non-binaries…is why I’m out of crypto.  Thanks for attending my TED talk. 

I’m proud to have earned a reputation as a thought leader, not a thought repeater.  To develop that kind of status requires having the balls to take risks, make predictions, and be willing to be proven wrong in public.  No one calls everything right. If they do, they’re just regurgitating the conventional beliefs of herd thinking.  You can expect this essay to be resoundingly criticized, trolled, and ridiculed.  (You may want to bookmark this page, so you can come back to post how much money you earned and troll me every time the price of your favorite crypto jumps.)  But my overall body of work over a few decades has shown a remarkable degree of prescience. Because of the current bloodbath taking place in crypto (which I predicted in June 2021 btw) – and the likelihood the bloodbath has only just begun – I’m putting these thoughts in the public square for discussion.

Here are a few important, final clarifications…

I’m not telling you not to invest in crypto or to sell any crypto assets you have. Like I told you, I don’t do investment advice, this essay is simply explaining the reasoning for my personal decision.  I’m not a typical investor.  If you’re looking to make the most profit from everything you invest in, I’m a terrible role model to follow. I’m at a place in my life where I want my investments to be congruent with the principles that are important to me. Those principles include investing in companies where the executive team has integrity, character, and talent – and they have a mission that involves solving problems and adding value.  Right now, cryptocurrencies are creating problems and decreasing value to society.

I’m not suggesting cryptocurrencies are actually going to literally die.  They won’t. They’ll still be around and the people with laser eyes in their avatars will still tout them, attend conventions around them, and promote them with breathless sensationalism.  (When I announced that I was getting out of crypto, someone in the comments wrote that crypto will be around long after I’m gone. As I pointed out to him, I’m very old, so this is a pretty low bar to reach.  It’s also true that Ponzi schemes, cockroaches, and Hot Tub Time Machine will also survive me.  That doesn’t mean they’re good.)

I’m not saying traders won’t continue to make money on cryptos.  They will.  You can be sure every time someone’s shit coin hits a new high-water mark, they’ll be back here to crow in the comments about it.  People will also continue to make large amounts of money robbing banks, participating in human trafficking, and becoming narco-traffickers.  That doesn’t mean you should do those things.

What I am saying is that I don’t believe Bitcoin or any other current cryptocurrency will reach the status of THE global currency that Satoshi envisioned.  They won’t offer freedom from government regulation, taxation, and manipulation we were hoping for.  And they won’t offer the security and privacy we were hoping for either.  They’ll be co-opted and corrupted by governments and the legacy banking system.

Right now, buying cryptos is like playing poker in a game with hustlers.  If you understand the game, are fairly cognizant of math, and you know the best ways to spot cheaters, you have a better than average chance to make some dosh.  But ultimately, each potential cryptocurrency will navigate to one of three potential paths:

  1. It becomes worthless.
  2. It pivots to another use.
  3. It becomes accepted and used as an actual currency.

If option three occurs (Ex: when all the bitcoins are mined) and people begin using it as a currency, it will become simply another medium for exchange, a commodity serving the same function as the dollar, euro, or yen.  The value can’t go up forever.  Too many people in the crypto cults can’t seem to grasp this reality.

Cryptos may have missed their window and never prosper, or they may simply need a 10- or 15-year “timeout” to rise again with a new generation under different perceptions.  Or more likely another flavor: a black-market version with better safeguards and infrastructure against potential theft and insolvency.  Because Bitcoin or even cryptocurrency in general aren’t the real draw here.  The sexiest part of the whole scenario is the blockchain concept. (Personally, I’m much more excited about the future of smart contract programs run on the Ethereum blockchain. Unfortunately, the potential of these is being drowned out right now by all the people and companies whoring out their names by issuing worthless NFTs.)  There will be a plethora of ways blockchains can be used without all the luggage it currently has with crypto.

If and when a crypto begins working as a viable digital currency, I’ll jump at the opportunity to use it.  And I may come back into the game as an investor at some point. (If so, I’ll be the first to tell you.) But right now, the entire space feels too skeezy and is not the kind of game I want to play.  When I’m dead and gone, hopefully my tombstone will read:

Here Lies the Body of Randy Gage

He never sold anyone a shit coin or sketchy NFT

It’s easier to give birth than resurrect the dead.  Instead of trying to revive a concept that’s been poisoned in the minds of millions, I’d rather back something fresh, innovative, and pristine.  It’s much more rewarding to invest in people: Founders who have a dream, are willing to work their face off building that dream, and they’ve got a concept that truly solves a problem, adds value, or envisions a superior possibility.  If that’s you, holler!

Peace,

- RG

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27 comments on “RIP Bitcoin”

  1. You have been preaching the gospel about this for quite some time ago. Just as you "seen the future" (as Prince once sang), you knew their would be a blood bath in this arena and many would not see another day in their investment future because of this. There is so much truth and more immense value in this blog post for many "preachers of immediate pleasure", instead of financial literacy.

  2. Every point sounds right and very convincing. However, I think there are 3 more cards on the other side of the table:

    1. Historically, institutions that are highly questioned tend to disappear. Money as we know it has never been so questioned and now that it is, more and more people will want to replace it (and to date there is no better replacement than cryptos).

    2. There are too many Crypto fans, with too much money on the table. Like the Concorde fallacy, the more people have invested, the more they will cling to say that this is the best investment of their life... People with a lot of influence would lose too much money if they fail to convince the population to keep this ship afloat

    3. The government will be able to regulate the institutions that manage the crypto, but at a technological level it cannot regulate the crypto itself, with which this continues to be a more decentralized option than fiat.

    If the crypto bro's manage to hold on long enough to their hope BTC and ETH could grow again and resume its course (can´t say the same for any other crypto)... I don't plan to put another penny on this bet, but I still think it has a 50-50% chance.

    1. I love your thoughts on this, as they provide some good tension to tease out where this situation may go next. Regarding card number one, you're correct that to date, the current flavor of crypto has been the best alternative. But what's next and how long will that be true? The idea that fascinates me most right now is how we could deploy the blockchain in alternate means. Most would agree the U.S. dollar was much more credible when it was on the gold standard. Bitcoin is based on the concept of an artificially created similar standard: the finite number of coins that can be minted. But how finite is finite? Is there no possibility that a movement arises after the quota is filled to open the mining up again for a limited time. Will Wokeism challenge the original coin holders as robber barons who were fortunate enough to be born in the right time and place? Human nature with entitlement and history leads me to believe this is a possibility. Will the 2040 version of Elizabeth Warren be running for president on the platform of reparations to the digitally-impaired? I have always loved precious metals as investments because they are truly finite. (Until, as I mentioned in my book, we can mine them on asteroids cheaper than it is to bring them from the earth.) Is there a way to tie the blockchain to a standard that isn't artificially created by man and subject to manipulation?

      Regarding card number two, what you're describing is the sunk cost fallacy. And history suggests that human behavior will continue to fall prey to this. Every day trader who was a dogecoin millionaire for 48 hours will keep chasing the next shit coin, like a junkie always trying to recreate that first high.

      Regarding card number tree, I hold a much more pessimistic view than you. It's true governments don't hold the keys to the blockchains. But I don't think they need them. Governments keep drug dealers under a modest degree of control because they control the legacy money system. Ex: the U.S. (and other powerful countries) tell bankers if they don't report every transaction over $10K, they go to prison. The drug dealers find countries without those regulations. Then the U.S. uses promises of foreign aid to pressure countries to adopt the same measures. Rogue countries become outlaws in the global monetary system and are eventually brought under control. Senator Warren's proposed bill even includes climate provisions in it. The IRS can and will red flag anyone showing crypto wallets. Look at China: they simply ban all cryptocurrencies and toss anyone into prison. EU already surveilling large transactions. I expect countries will create their own national, patriotic versions of cryptos and label anyone who refuses to use them as criminals or traitors. This is all pretty dystopian I admit. But history is on my side.

      But the biggest issue here is again the timing. I'd agree with your 50/50 odds right now. But how will those odds change now that the 10 or 15 media outlets SBF invested in will no longer be writing puff pieces about him, FTX, and crypto in general? How will they change when the FTX bankruptcy clawbacks show five or ten other exchanges to be illiquid and insolvent? How will they look if Binance, the 800 pound gorilla in the space is next to go? (P.S. I'm hearing they had $900 million of net outflow in the last 24 hours.) I wrote this essay not just about the situation today, but where I fear it goes next. Grab a big Diet Coke, some milk duds, and popcorn - shit's about to get real. Thanks for keeping the discourse going!

      1. If binance falls I agree that there would no longer be 50%-50%. But I think all the institutions involved with BTC won't let that happen, because of the the sunk cost fallacy we mentioned. As @Doge Dog says, I also think BTC will survive.

  3. Randy, while you have been quite ope on your perspective here ...you totally nailed it when you said ... the last few months particularly have exposed just how systemically corrupt the entire crypto support structure really is and how most people on both sides on the buy & sell have gambled away on the hope vs reality. Too many troubling issues and significant complexities to give anyone peace of mind!

  4. Very well written....really. Very well-written bunch of garbage. You have not made any deeper research or an on-chain analysis. You are a left-winger gay man. You talk like one. You love crypto failure like the rest. of your kind. On-chain analysis by the very prominent and largest data company in the world, reveals that there is no crypto obituary. Crypto adoption is growing, the usual 67% of bitcoin holders and holding not selling, and many of the crypto coins that are backed by real technologies (useful to the world) are growing. But what would you know? You are no expert, not an analyst, just a clever MLM writer who cannot build an MLM anymore. Just talks about it. All hat, no cattle. We should write an article about people like you, scamming and taking advantage of an industry where 98% fail, yet you lie to them every day that can succeed. Pipe dream salesman. Crypto is wounded but will win, because the world needs it. In fact, all physical property soon will have a crypto value attached to it. the industry will adjust, clean up and move on...without you. Bitcoin is a technology run by code, not by humans. It has delivered and will continue to deliver exactly what it was created for. I wonder why Fidelity just purchased $62 million in BTC? And JP Morgan digital put bitcoin at $100 million in value in 10 years. They know the uber-scammy banking industry will break down soon.

    A crypto multimillionaire.

    1. Tony Carr... I know you don't need or want any advice from me, but we would all take your comments more seriously if they weren't full of hate and personal attacks. All the data you share is interesting, but seems like you are too deep into this to actually be objective.

      Sincerely,
      A right-winger straight man

  5. I been recommending not buying BTC as an investment for two years and counting. A vast majority of cryptos are things that come out of a sewer. It even be that actual mark of the beast since it can be turned off at a whim of a hat if this becomes centralized. Kind of humorous seeing the knee jerk reactions from these fake crypto currency millionairs pound out the testimonials like popinjays on a wire. Only time will tell if they come to their senses and invest in real gold, silver currencies

    I wouldn't hold your breath on #3 because it is unlikely to happen anytime soon or later due to the overhype. It becomes accepted and used as an actual currency? Really. Don't really think so yet. A lot of crap still needs to be flushed down the drain after the massive sewer back up. The thing that is seldom talked about is a world goverment controlling and regulating everything down to the food to crypo currencies. That is my worst case scenario.

  6. SBF was casually doing a Twitter Spaces “community call” this morning with 100,000 listeners stumbling through the details of how he made billions of dollars disappear with FTX, Alameda investments, donations to politicians & media organizations, paying endorsement deals to Kevin O’Leary & sports franchises, etc.

    Square that with the fact that both his parents are lawyers.

    Now square the fact that the U.S. Government gave up the opportunity for congressional testimony as admissible evidence by arresting him a day too early.

    1. I don't see anything nefarious in the arrest timing. I think the Southern District of NY already had everything they need for an open and shut conviction case. The man was publicaly incriminating himself on a daily basis.

  7. A few Binance headlines from the last 24 hours:

    - Binance reportedly processed billions in illegal payments in 2022

    - US Justice Department may charge Binance Execs (including CZ) for money laundering

    - Binance locks withdrawals for some accounts amid what CEO calls 'just market behavior'

    - Binance's proof of reserves raises red flags

  8. As for Bitcoin, it will be just fine. This is a single moment in time. Bitcoin will survive this moment and thrive over the long-term horizon.

    “Bitcoin ($BTC) the asset” still may be the best asset in human history. $BTC is the internet of money. The internet is the standard for cheap, instant, global communication. None of this chaotic moment in time truly impacts $BTC.

    “Bitcoin the network” is still likely the best monetary network in human history. It is the standard for cheap, instant, global monetary settlement. It continues to grow even during this moment in time. Hundreds of millions of people will be incentivized to use it, regardless what type of “money” people prefer to spend when using “Bitcoin the network.”

    RIP? No, more like DCA

  9. A great article in the Atlantic tonight abut this guy, James Block who took down FTX in his spare time, because he's fascinated with finance.. says let's face it, crypto is all smoke and mirrors.. just curious Randy, how long do you see mlm cryptos lasting??

    1. There really is no such thing as MLM cryptos. You can't base a multi-level pay plan on any currencies, whether physical or digital. These are straight out Ponzi schemes and they've just found a new way to label them to bring in unsuspecting victims. What we now know as Ponzis have been with us since at least 1869 and I suspect they will never end entirely. There are always people looking for a short cut who will suspend their disbelief and common sense when the payout seems attractive enough. - RG

  10. Thank you Randy, you are reassuring me in my way (philosophy) of observing this madness around bitcoin and especially in the MLM industry. A beautiful industry that, because of some scammers loses its image again!
    Again: Simply THANK YOU:-)

  11. Hey brother! Thanks so much for this great reflection. Behond the technical and ethical discussion, I've really enjoyed the deep philosophical and spiritual considerations. A lot of food for thought.

    Defintely we are witnessing the end of an era. Personally, I believe - and hope, for the good of human consciousness and free society itself - Bitcoin still have some huge chances to make it into Overtone window and continue to offer a financial alternative away from control of traditional power circles. Current recession will be its live or die opportunity.

    And as for our beloved MLM industry, sooooo happy we've shaked down all these f.....g parasites!

    Eighteen years ago, under the magic spell of a delicious rice and chicken at the Bogota airport, I suggested you wrote a book on MLM self leadership. It became a bestseller. An industry textbook. Here I am again: I dont think there is an author in the space reflecting beyond the financial and technical aspects of this phenomenon as you are.

    Satoshi Nakamoto - or whoever the guy(guys) was(were) to invent this thing - and millions of free spiritual and business thinkers will really appreciate it. Forever and ever. 😉

  12. I say that good writing comes from good thinking. Great writing: Great thinking. This is one of the most brilliant pieces I have ever read. Sitting at your feet RG. ❤️

    1. Exactly what I told Chris. This is not my area but I could understand everything and I resonate with the clarity of reasoning- a rare commodity in media these days. Happy end of 2022, JMF and RG! Also from Chris <3

  13. Interesting thoughts Randy! Thanks!

    What I have come to love the most about the crypto space is that it makes the MLM junkies and scammers look like cute little well intended teddy bears... ‍♂️‍♂️

  14. Hey Randy!
    Long time no see! Hope all is great with you.
    Fantastic podcast and i 100% agree with you.

    Can you hit me up on with an email on [email protected] i want to show you a company that really for great or good that solves world problems and add values to humanity and the earth.
    You understand when you see it.

    Its a traditional company that is already came very far the last 10 years but now they are almost over the finish line.
    They are not affected with pandemics or economy inflation.

    I can promise you with the hand on my heart it will be on og your best investments if not the best. Im so curtain of it, people that build up Sony and Apple is there and they say this will be the biggest company they ever been involved with.

    Best regards!
    Joachim

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  • 27 comments on “RIP Bitcoin”

    1. You have been preaching the gospel about this for quite some time ago. Just as you "seen the future" (as Prince once sang), you knew their would be a blood bath in this arena and many would not see another day in their investment future because of this. There is so much truth and more immense value in this blog post for many "preachers of immediate pleasure", instead of financial literacy.

    2. Every point sounds right and very convincing. However, I think there are 3 more cards on the other side of the table:

      1. Historically, institutions that are highly questioned tend to disappear. Money as we know it has never been so questioned and now that it is, more and more people will want to replace it (and to date there is no better replacement than cryptos).

      2. There are too many Crypto fans, with too much money on the table. Like the Concorde fallacy, the more people have invested, the more they will cling to say that this is the best investment of their life... People with a lot of influence would lose too much money if they fail to convince the population to keep this ship afloat

      3. The government will be able to regulate the institutions that manage the crypto, but at a technological level it cannot regulate the crypto itself, with which this continues to be a more decentralized option than fiat.

      If the crypto bro's manage to hold on long enough to their hope BTC and ETH could grow again and resume its course (can´t say the same for any other crypto)... I don't plan to put another penny on this bet, but I still think it has a 50-50% chance.

      1. I love your thoughts on this, as they provide some good tension to tease out where this situation may go next. Regarding card number one, you're correct that to date, the current flavor of crypto has been the best alternative. But what's next and how long will that be true? The idea that fascinates me most right now is how we could deploy the blockchain in alternate means. Most would agree the U.S. dollar was much more credible when it was on the gold standard. Bitcoin is based on the concept of an artificially created similar standard: the finite number of coins that can be minted. But how finite is finite? Is there no possibility that a movement arises after the quota is filled to open the mining up again for a limited time. Will Wokeism challenge the original coin holders as robber barons who were fortunate enough to be born in the right time and place? Human nature with entitlement and history leads me to believe this is a possibility. Will the 2040 version of Elizabeth Warren be running for president on the platform of reparations to the digitally-impaired? I have always loved precious metals as investments because they are truly finite. (Until, as I mentioned in my book, we can mine them on asteroids cheaper than it is to bring them from the earth.) Is there a way to tie the blockchain to a standard that isn't artificially created by man and subject to manipulation?

        Regarding card number two, what you're describing is the sunk cost fallacy. And history suggests that human behavior will continue to fall prey to this. Every day trader who was a dogecoin millionaire for 48 hours will keep chasing the next shit coin, like a junkie always trying to recreate that first high.

        Regarding card number tree, I hold a much more pessimistic view than you. It's true governments don't hold the keys to the blockchains. But I don't think they need them. Governments keep drug dealers under a modest degree of control because they control the legacy money system. Ex: the U.S. (and other powerful countries) tell bankers if they don't report every transaction over $10K, they go to prison. The drug dealers find countries without those regulations. Then the U.S. uses promises of foreign aid to pressure countries to adopt the same measures. Rogue countries become outlaws in the global monetary system and are eventually brought under control. Senator Warren's proposed bill even includes climate provisions in it. The IRS can and will red flag anyone showing crypto wallets. Look at China: they simply ban all cryptocurrencies and toss anyone into prison. EU already surveilling large transactions. I expect countries will create their own national, patriotic versions of cryptos and label anyone who refuses to use them as criminals or traitors. This is all pretty dystopian I admit. But history is on my side.

        But the biggest issue here is again the timing. I'd agree with your 50/50 odds right now. But how will those odds change now that the 10 or 15 media outlets SBF invested in will no longer be writing puff pieces about him, FTX, and crypto in general? How will they change when the FTX bankruptcy clawbacks show five or ten other exchanges to be illiquid and insolvent? How will they look if Binance, the 800 pound gorilla in the space is next to go? (P.S. I'm hearing they had $900 million of net outflow in the last 24 hours.) I wrote this essay not just about the situation today, but where I fear it goes next. Grab a big Diet Coke, some milk duds, and popcorn - shit's about to get real. Thanks for keeping the discourse going!

        1. If binance falls I agree that there would no longer be 50%-50%. But I think all the institutions involved with BTC won't let that happen, because of the the sunk cost fallacy we mentioned. As @Doge Dog says, I also think BTC will survive.

    3. Randy, while you have been quite ope on your perspective here ...you totally nailed it when you said ... the last few months particularly have exposed just how systemically corrupt the entire crypto support structure really is and how most people on both sides on the buy & sell have gambled away on the hope vs reality. Too many troubling issues and significant complexities to give anyone peace of mind!

    4. Very well written....really. Very well-written bunch of garbage. You have not made any deeper research or an on-chain analysis. You are a left-winger gay man. You talk like one. You love crypto failure like the rest. of your kind. On-chain analysis by the very prominent and largest data company in the world, reveals that there is no crypto obituary. Crypto adoption is growing, the usual 67% of bitcoin holders and holding not selling, and many of the crypto coins that are backed by real technologies (useful to the world) are growing. But what would you know? You are no expert, not an analyst, just a clever MLM writer who cannot build an MLM anymore. Just talks about it. All hat, no cattle. We should write an article about people like you, scamming and taking advantage of an industry where 98% fail, yet you lie to them every day that can succeed. Pipe dream salesman. Crypto is wounded but will win, because the world needs it. In fact, all physical property soon will have a crypto value attached to it. the industry will adjust, clean up and move on...without you. Bitcoin is a technology run by code, not by humans. It has delivered and will continue to deliver exactly what it was created for. I wonder why Fidelity just purchased $62 million in BTC? And JP Morgan digital put bitcoin at $100 million in value in 10 years. They know the uber-scammy banking industry will break down soon.

      A crypto multimillionaire.

      1. Tony Carr... I know you don't need or want any advice from me, but we would all take your comments more seriously if they weren't full of hate and personal attacks. All the data you share is interesting, but seems like you are too deep into this to actually be objective.

        Sincerely,
        A right-winger straight man

    5. I been recommending not buying BTC as an investment for two years and counting. A vast majority of cryptos are things that come out of a sewer. It even be that actual mark of the beast since it can be turned off at a whim of a hat if this becomes centralized. Kind of humorous seeing the knee jerk reactions from these fake crypto currency millionairs pound out the testimonials like popinjays on a wire. Only time will tell if they come to their senses and invest in real gold, silver currencies

      I wouldn't hold your breath on #3 because it is unlikely to happen anytime soon or later due to the overhype. It becomes accepted and used as an actual currency? Really. Don't really think so yet. A lot of crap still needs to be flushed down the drain after the massive sewer back up. The thing that is seldom talked about is a world goverment controlling and regulating everything down to the food to crypo currencies. That is my worst case scenario.

    6. SBF was casually doing a Twitter Spaces “community call” this morning with 100,000 listeners stumbling through the details of how he made billions of dollars disappear with FTX, Alameda investments, donations to politicians & media organizations, paying endorsement deals to Kevin O’Leary & sports franchises, etc.

      Square that with the fact that both his parents are lawyers.

      Now square the fact that the U.S. Government gave up the opportunity for congressional testimony as admissible evidence by arresting him a day too early.

      1. I don't see anything nefarious in the arrest timing. I think the Southern District of NY already had everything they need for an open and shut conviction case. The man was publicaly incriminating himself on a daily basis.

    7. A few Binance headlines from the last 24 hours:

      - Binance reportedly processed billions in illegal payments in 2022

      - US Justice Department may charge Binance Execs (including CZ) for money laundering

      - Binance locks withdrawals for some accounts amid what CEO calls 'just market behavior'

      - Binance's proof of reserves raises red flags

    8. As for Bitcoin, it will be just fine. This is a single moment in time. Bitcoin will survive this moment and thrive over the long-term horizon.

      “Bitcoin ($BTC) the asset” still may be the best asset in human history. $BTC is the internet of money. The internet is the standard for cheap, instant, global communication. None of this chaotic moment in time truly impacts $BTC.

      “Bitcoin the network” is still likely the best monetary network in human history. It is the standard for cheap, instant, global monetary settlement. It continues to grow even during this moment in time. Hundreds of millions of people will be incentivized to use it, regardless what type of “money” people prefer to spend when using “Bitcoin the network.”

      RIP? No, more like DCA

    9. A great article in the Atlantic tonight abut this guy, James Block who took down FTX in his spare time, because he's fascinated with finance.. says let's face it, crypto is all smoke and mirrors.. just curious Randy, how long do you see mlm cryptos lasting??

      1. There really is no such thing as MLM cryptos. You can't base a multi-level pay plan on any currencies, whether physical or digital. These are straight out Ponzi schemes and they've just found a new way to label them to bring in unsuspecting victims. What we now know as Ponzis have been with us since at least 1869 and I suspect they will never end entirely. There are always people looking for a short cut who will suspend their disbelief and common sense when the payout seems attractive enough. - RG

    10. Thank you Randy, you are reassuring me in my way (philosophy) of observing this madness around bitcoin and especially in the MLM industry. A beautiful industry that, because of some scammers loses its image again!
      Again: Simply THANK YOU:-)

    11. Hey brother! Thanks so much for this great reflection. Behond the technical and ethical discussion, I've really enjoyed the deep philosophical and spiritual considerations. A lot of food for thought.

      Defintely we are witnessing the end of an era. Personally, I believe - and hope, for the good of human consciousness and free society itself - Bitcoin still have some huge chances to make it into Overtone window and continue to offer a financial alternative away from control of traditional power circles. Current recession will be its live or die opportunity.

      And as for our beloved MLM industry, sooooo happy we've shaked down all these f.....g parasites!

      Eighteen years ago, under the magic spell of a delicious rice and chicken at the Bogota airport, I suggested you wrote a book on MLM self leadership. It became a bestseller. An industry textbook. Here I am again: I dont think there is an author in the space reflecting beyond the financial and technical aspects of this phenomenon as you are.

      Satoshi Nakamoto - or whoever the guy(guys) was(were) to invent this thing - and millions of free spiritual and business thinkers will really appreciate it. Forever and ever. 😉

    12. I say that good writing comes from good thinking. Great writing: Great thinking. This is one of the most brilliant pieces I have ever read. Sitting at your feet RG. ❤️

      1. Exactly what I told Chris. This is not my area but I could understand everything and I resonate with the clarity of reasoning- a rare commodity in media these days. Happy end of 2022, JMF and RG! Also from Chris <3

    13. Interesting thoughts Randy! Thanks!

      What I have come to love the most about the crypto space is that it makes the MLM junkies and scammers look like cute little well intended teddy bears... ‍♂️‍♂️

    14. Hey Randy!
      Long time no see! Hope all is great with you.
      Fantastic podcast and i 100% agree with you.

      Can you hit me up on with an email on [email protected] i want to show you a company that really for great or good that solves world problems and add values to humanity and the earth.
      You understand when you see it.

      Its a traditional company that is already came very far the last 10 years but now they are almost over the finish line.
      They are not affected with pandemics or economy inflation.

      I can promise you with the hand on my heart it will be on og your best investments if not the best. Im so curtain of it, people that build up Sony and Apple is there and they say this will be the biggest company they ever been involved with.

      Best regards!
      Joachim

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